钟南山：下一次流感来临我们将如何应对

来源： 中国青年报 　　　时间： 2018-09-20 11:40

      下一次流感来临，公众将如何应对？在近日举行的第三届国际流感及其他呼吸道病毒防治论坛上，我国著名呼吸病学专家、中国工程院院士钟南山指出，近年来，广州在病毒快速分离、早发现早干预、病毒滴度检测、细胞因子检测、抗病毒方法、中和抗体、流感疫苗研发、保护性机械通气、中药抗病毒等方面都取得显著成绩。

　　钟南山表示，要应对可能的突发传染病，有必要将关口前移，把更多的先进技术向基层医院推广，提升他们的诊断水平，让基层机构成为现有公共卫生监测的有利补充，在呼吸系统传染病暴发时有能力作出快速反应，为中国乃至世界的流感监测作出自己的贡献。

　　2018年，恰逢1918年西班牙大流感爆发100年。1918年由甲型H1N1流感病毒引起的“西班牙流感”，被称为“人类历史上最大的瘟疫”。受限于当时社会医疗、科技水平，以及人类对流感病毒认识的缺乏，全世界患病人数超过5亿。时至今日，急性呼吸系统传染病仍然是人类面临的主要公共健康问题之一。近年肆虐的重大呼吸道传染性疾病，如2003年全球爆发的急性重症呼吸综合征（SARS），以及随后出现的新发流感、禽流感、新型中东冠状病毒（MERS）等，临床症状均以呼吸系统损害为显著特征。

　　这些疫情具有严重破坏性和不可预测性，构成严重的公共卫生问题，同时也暴露了我们应对措施的缺陷和不足，更凸显积极防控的重要性。由于目前公众对流感还缺乏科学认识，流感疫苗接种率较低，2018年年初的流感季，也暴露了医疗系统的服务能力还无法满足短期内病患激增的治疗需求，因此第三届国际流感及其他呼吸道病毒防治论坛的目的与意义在于提高公众对流感的认识，促进我国流感病毒监测网的发展，提高我国流感病毒疫苗和抗病毒药物的研发水平，应对未来的流感暴发及流行。

　　论坛上，呼吸疾病国家重点实验室和国家呼吸系统疾病临床医学研究中心宣布，在金域医学设立病毒诊断研究分室和研究中心。同时，广州呼吸健康研究院和金域医学宣布，联合成立“临床呼吸道病毒诊断与转化中心”，钟南山将在担任中心主任的同时，在金域医学设立院士工作站，一同致力于打造呼吸病毒临床和实验室诊断“国家级”精准检测平台，提升基层流感诊治能力，为随时应对可能突发的传染病的诊断做好准备，助力政府做好传染病控制。(林洁)

http://www.gd.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2018-09/20/c_1123459206.htm

流感大流行太阳黑子学说的科学解释

http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-529903-1093648.html

为什么说2019年前后会发生一次新的流感大流行？

http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-529903-1093911.html

http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-529903-1095552.html

寨卡病毒大流行或与巴西地区突然增强的宇宙射线有关

http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-529903-1122608.html

Cosmic RaysHit Space Age High

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September 29, 2009: Planning a trip to Mars? Take plenty of shielding. According to sensors on NASA's ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) spacecraft, galactic cosmic rays have just hit a Space Age high.

"In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we've seen in the past 50 years," says Richard Mewaldt of Caltech. "The increase is significant, and it could mean we need to re-think how much radiation shielding astronauts take with them on deep-space missions."

Above: Energetic iron nuclei counted by the Cosmic Ray Isotope Spectrometer on NASA's ACE spacecraft reveal that cosmic ray levels have jumped 19% above the previous Space Age high.

The cause of the surge is solar minimum, a deep lull in solar activity that began around 2007 and continues today. Researchers have long known that cosmic rays go up when solar activity goes down. Right now solar activity is as weak as it has been in modern times, setting the stage for what Mewaldt calls "a perfect storm of cosmic rays."

"We're experiencing the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, "so it is no surprise that cosmic rays are at record levels for the Space Age."

Galactic cosmic rays come from outside the solar system. They are subatomic particles--mainly protons but also some heavy nuclei--accelerated to almost light speed by distant supernova explosions. Cosmic rays cause "air showers" of secondary particles when they hit Earth's atmosphere; they pose a health hazard to astronauts; and a single cosmic ray can disable a satellite if it hits an unlucky integrated circuit.

The sun's magnetic field is our first line of defense against these highly-charged, energetic particles. The entire solar system from Mercury to Pluto and beyond is surrounded by a bubble of magnetism called "the heliosphere." It springs from the sun's inner magnetic dynamo and is inflated to gargantuan proportions by the solar wind. When a cosmic ray tries to enter the solar system, it must fight through the heliosphere's outer layers; and if it makes it inside, there is a thicket of magnetic fields waiting to scatter and deflect the intruder.

Right: An artist's concept of the heliosphere, a magnetic bubble that partially protects the solar system from cosmic rays.

"At times of low solar activity, this natural shielding is weakened, and more cosmic rays are able to reach the inner solar system," explains Pesnell.

Mewaldt lists three aspects of the current solar minimum that are combining to create the perfect storm:

1. The sun's magnetic field is weak. "There has been a sharp decline in the sun's interplanetary magnetic field down to 4 nT (nanoTesla) from typical values of 6 to 8 nT," he says. "This record-low interplanetary magnetic field undoubtedly contributes to the record-high cosmic ray fluxes." 

2. The solar wind is flagging. "Measurements by the Ulysses spacecraft show that solar wind pressure is at a 50-year low," he continues, "so the magnetic bubble that protects the solar system is not being inflated as much as usual." A smaller bubble gives cosmic rays a shorter-shot into the solar system. Once a cosmic ray enters the solar system, it must "swim upstream" against the solar wind. Solar wind speeds have dropped to very low levels in 2008 and 2009, making it easier than usual for a cosmic ray to proceed. 

3. The current sheet is flattening. Imagine the sun wearing a ballerina's skirt as wide as the entire solar system with an electrical current flowing along its wavy folds. It's real, and it's called the "heliospheric current sheet," a vast transition zone where the polarity of the sun's magnetic field changes from plus to minus. The current sheet is important because cosmic rays are guided by its folds. Lately, the current sheet has been flattening itself out, allowing cosmic rays more direct access to the inner solar system.

Right: The heliospheric current sheet is shaped like a ballerina's skirt. Image credit: J. R. Jokipii and B. Thomas, Astrophysical Journal 243, 1115, 1981.

"If the flattening continues, we could see cosmic ray fluxes jump all the way to 30% above previous Space Age highs," predicts Mewaldt. 

Earth is in no great peril. Our planet's atmosphere and magnetic field provide some defense against the extra cosmic rays. Indeed, we've experienced much worse in the past. Hundreds of years ago, cosmic ray fluxes were at least 200% to 300% higher than anything measured during the Space Age. Researchers know this because when cosmic rays hit the atmosphere, they produce an isotope of beryllium, 10Be, which is preserved in polar ice. By examining ice cores, it is possible to estimate cosmic ray fluxes more than a thousand years into the past. Even with the recent surge, cosmic rays today are much weaker than they have been at times in the past millennium. 

"The space era has so far experienced a time of relatively low cosmic ray activity," says Mewaldt. "We may now be returning to levels typical of past centuries."

NASA spacecraft will continue to monitor the situation as solar minimum unfolds. Stay tuned for updates.

 https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29sep_cosmicrays