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[转载]墨西哥城实行混合动力汽车技术评估报告

已有 3091 次阅读 2011-1-30 14:04 |个人分类:锂离子电池 其它|系统分类:论文交流|关键词:墨西哥城,混合动力,汽车| 汽车, 混合动力, 墨西哥城 |文章来源:转载

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Journal of Power Sources
Article in Press, Accepted Manuscript - Note to users
doi:10.1016/j.jpowsour.2011.01.076 | How to Cite or Link Using DOI
Copyright © 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.
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An evaluation of the hybrid car technology for the Mexico Mega City

Aron D. Jazcilevicha, Corresponding Author Contact Information, E-mail The Corresponding Author, Agustin Garcia Reynosoa, Michel Gruttera, Javier Delgadob, Ulises Diego Ayalae, Manuel Suarez Lastrab, Miriam Zukd, Rogelio Gonzalez Oropezac, Jim Lentsf and Nicole Davisf

a Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera

b Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Geografía

c Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Facultad de Ingeniería

d University of California at Berkeley

e Electronic Variable Technologies SL, Barcelona, Spain

f International Sustainable System Research

Received 6 December 2010; 
revised 19 January 2011; 
accepted 20 January 2011. 
Available online 28 January 2011.

Abstract

The introduction of Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) technology in the private car fleet of Mexico City is evaluated in terms of private costs, energy, public health and CO2 emission benefits. In addition to constructing plausible scenarios for urban expansion, emission, car fleet, and fuel consumption for year 2026 and comparing them with a 2004 base case, a time series is built to obtain accumulated economic benefits. Experimental techniques were used to build a vehicle library for a car simulator that included a Prius 2002, chosen as the HEV technology representative for this work. The simulator is used to estimate the emissions and fuel consumption of the car fleet scenarios. In the context of an urban scenario for year 2026, a complex air quality model obtains the concentrations of criterion pollutants corresponding to these scenarios.

Using a technology penetration model, the hybridized fleet starts unfolding in year 2009 reaching to 20% in 2026. In this year, the hybridized fleet resulted in reductions of about 10% of CO2 emissions, and yielded reductions in daytime mean concentrations of up to 7% in ozone and 3.4% in PM2.5 compared to the 2004 base case. These reductions are concentrated in the densely populated areas of Mexico City. By building a time series of costs and benefits it is shown that, depending on fuel prices and using a 5% return rate, positive accumulated benefits (CO2 benefits + energy benefits+ public health benefits - private costs) will start generating in year 2015 reaching between 2.8 and 4.5 billion US Dlls. in 2026. Another modernized private fleet consisting exclusively of Tier I and II cars did not yield appreciable results, signaling that a change in private car technology towards HEV's is needed to obtain significant accumulated benefits.

Keywords: HEV technology; Accumulated Benefits; Air Pollution; Vehicular Emissions



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