回顾2002年对2002~2010科学图谱发展的预测 精选

已有 11268 次阅读 2012-12-29 06:57 |个人分类:科学前沿图谱|系统分类:科研笔记

下面三段预测是我在2002年在《Mapping Scientific Frontiers: The Quest for Knowledge Visualization》的结尾对未来10年的展望。现在回头看看哪些实现了,哪些还没有,还有哪些没有提到的。好象总体上乐观了点儿。。。
1。 2002~2005

For the next 3~5 years, between 2002 and 2005, several routes of research and development are likely to emerge or establish. In particular, the need for expanding the current coverage of citation databases to include conference proceedings and patent databases can trigger further research in automatic citation indexing and large-scale text analysis. The need for timelier disciplinary snapshot should also drive much research onto this route. Automatic extraction of citation context will become increasingly popular. Software agents will begin to emerge for summarizing multiple citation contexts – an important step in resolving the bottleneck of streamlining quantitative and qualitative approaches to science mapping. The recent surge of interest in small-world networks is likely to continue. One can expect to see more specific studies of scientific networks as small-world networks, including Web-based resources analysis, traditional citation databases, and patent databases. Research in small-world networks is likely to draw much of attention to network analysis tools that can handle large-scale scientific networks. Cross-section comparisons should increase.



Between 2005 and 2010, knowledge-oriented search tools and exploration tools will become widely available. Users major search tasks will probably switch from data-oriented search to comprehension and interpretation tasks. Intelligent software agents will begin to mature for citation context extraction and summarization.  Genomic maps will play more substantial roles in linking scientific data and scientific literature. A synergy of data mining in genomic map data and scientific literature will attract increasing interest.



Beyond 2010, mapping scientific frontiers should reach a point where science maps can start to make forecasts and simulations. Powerful simulations will allow scientists to see the potential impact of a new technology. Further than that, we will have to wait and see.


12 武夷山 李杰 高建国 刘宇 曹聪 王贤文 赵星 陈凯华 王云才 傅蕴德 胡小洋 强涛

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