A majority in the U.K. voted to leave the EU. But a look at the geography of the vote provides another angle on the result and insights into the political geography of the Disunited Kingdom.

The vote laid bare a seldom-acknowledged political and economic imbalance within the country. It has also raised the chances of dissolving a more than three centuries-old union.

The very first result of the referendum came from Gibraltar, the giant rock in southern Spain at the mouth of the Mediterranean, home to 32,000. It was not a useful predictor of events to unfold as close to 96 percent of the votes cast were to stay with the EU. The reason: the EU assures that Gibraltar remains British and deflects Spanish claims. With the U.K. outside of the EU, Spain can press home their claim. Spain has already asserted the right to some form of joint control over the rock.

A major area of support for remaining in the EU was centered on London. So-called Greater London comprises 7.5 million people and the greater metropolitan region has a population of approximately 21 million. The reach of the city extends into most of the South East part of the country and beyond.

The city and its extended metropolitan dominate the nation. The wealthy, the influential, the movers and shakers live in the city; it is home to royalty, the political elites, those who control much of the making and moving of money. It is by far the most affluent part of Britain. London has emerged a global financial center attracting expertise and investment from across the globe and around Europe. London is hard-wired into the financial circuits of the EU and global economy.

For the past 30 years the principal aim of government economic policy has been, arguably, to protect London’s position, particularly as a financial center, while leaving the rest of the country largely ignored. In the U.K. version of trickle-down economics, London is the golden goose whose droppings fertilize the rest of the country. In reality there was not much trickle and the U.K., like the U.S., is becoming a more unequal society.

There is a spatial dimension to this social inequality. The U.K. has the most marked regional inequality in Europe. The rich and wealthy are concentrated in London and the South East where household incomes are higher than the rest of the country. As the U.K. became a more unequal and divided society, the cleavage between London and the South East compared to the rest of the country is becoming more marked.

Now let’s look the rest of England and Wales, where the majority voted to leave. The people in these regions, especially the lower income groups, were bypassed by the emphasis on the London money machine. Spatially, class conflict was often framed as the South East versus the rest of the country, although in reality the divisions were as much social and spatial.

But even though there existed this discontent with the South East power center in Wales and other parts of England, it was never strong enough to lead to demands for political separation as it could in Scotland. There was no constitutional basis and so the rest of of England and Wales seethed at the rising inequality and neglect.

The exit vote was prompted by many things, especially a disquiet at immigration, but is was also a vote against the dominance of London and the political establishment. The exit vote managed to capture popular resentment against the status quo just as Trump and Sanders did in the U.S.

All districts in Scotland voted to remain in the EU. This is a complete reversal to the 1975 referendum when Scotland voted against joining the EU when much of the rest of the country embraced the European project.

What happened? The EU provided benefits to Scotland that the London-biased U.K. government did not. Scotland’s political culture, it turns out, is closer to the EU than that of London-based Tories. And years of punishing Thatcher rule in the 1980s soured many in Scotland against a reliance on the U.K. political system. The EU softened the neoliberalism of English Tory rule.

The Brexit vote highlights the problem of sharing a political space with divergent interests. The Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh will now move to draft legislation for another referendum on Scottish independence. The result could be different from the one in 2014 when 55 percent voted to stay in. The Brexit vote may herald the break up a Union first crafted in 1707.

Northern Ireland, as a whole, also voted to remain in the EU. But the Anglo Welsh vote across the water that tipped the balance in the opposite direction raises new issues for the province. Northern Ireland, the only part of the U.K. that has a land border with an EU country, is in a similar economic position to Scotland but in a very different political context. The province is split between those who want to join up with Eire and those who want to stay in the U.K. Sinn Féin, the party that seeks union with Ireland, has already proposed a vote on all Ireland unification.

The geography of the Brexit vote tells us much about the political geography of the U.K. Buy what about the political future of the U.K.?

The Brexit vote reveals and embodies the deep divide in the U.K. between the different regions of England and Wales and especially between the affluent London and the South East. This division is unlikely to heal soon.

The different voting patterns between Scotland, Wales and England outside of the South East may herald the break up of the U.K. The United Kingdom was always something of a misnomer. It is not a kingdom – the head of state currently is a queen – and it is not all that united. The Brexit vote is likely to exacerbate the breakup of Britain.

附1：http://www.onlysl.com/article.asp?ID=86823

                    哈贝马斯：英国脱欧反映了欧盟成员国的共同危机

                                             时间：2016-7-12 9:37:38

  哈贝马斯，法兰克福学派第二代传人，在世最伟大的哲学家，欧洲一体化和欧盟最坚定的捍卫者，最后一个欧洲人……

   英国公投脱欧，欧盟到了最危险的时刻。欧盟的分崩离析是哈贝马斯这一辈知识分子最不愿意看到的图景。已经许久没有出现在公众面前的87岁哈贝马斯日前在一场关于欧盟未来的座谈会上，接受了德国报纸《时代周报》（Die Zeit)的专访，专题谈论欧盟危机。长篇专访刊登在7月7日的报纸上，在2个整版的访谈中， 哈贝马斯直接批判了德国现任联邦总理默克尔对欧盟政治的立场：“她在比利时首都布鲁塞尔的欧盟多成员国分会上的采取观望态度”。他认为，默克尔在利用她的政治手腕屈服于“历史的铅化过程”（bleiernder Lauf der Geschichte），而欧盟的政治家们只是在“混日子”。

   以下内容摘译自7月7日的《时代周报》。

   时代周报：哈贝马斯先生，您曾经会料到英国脱欧一事会在你有生之日发生吗？当您听到这次英国脱欧派取得胜利的时候，当下您是何感受？

   哈贝马斯：对我来说这真是个意想不到的结果。民粹主义竟然会在英国这个资本主义发源地对其进行如此成功的打击。要知道英国的银行、贸易领域对于大不列颠帝国生存的重要性，以及考虑到伦敦作为英国的金融中心，其所具有的媒体权威性和强大的政治贯彻性，这次英国的民族意识在与这样强大的经济利益斗争中取得胜利，当然是太不可思议了。

时代周报：这次选举中不仅有明显的年龄上的“青老年差距”，另外“城乡差距”也很突出。作为国际化大都市的英国首都伦敦在公投中落败。这次为什么英国的民族意识认同感突然超越了欧洲一体化理念？难道是欧洲的政治家们低估了英国式民族与文化固执性的爆发反击力？

哈贝马斯：您说得对。这次英国选民的投票结果也反映了欧盟及其成员国的共同危机状况。这次英国公投中的选民分析结果也重复了上次在奥地利联邦总统大选以及上届德国国会选举中已经熟悉了的模式。这次相对较高的投票率说明了，民粹主义阵营成功地调动了那些主要由“自认为已落伍”的英国边缘人口所组成的非选民阶层。这也符合另一项调查结果：为什么英国较贫穷阶层，社会弱势群体以及文化教育程度较低阶层相对多地投了脱欧票。

仅是在农村和城市之间有如此对立的投票行为，脱欧选票的地理分布也说明了英国脱欧的社会和经济原因：英国中部和威尔士部分地区，特别是满目疮痍、经济上已无法重振的英国工业园区，都是脱欧选票的密集区。他们承受了的急剧增长的社会不平等压力，同时又感到束手无策，其自身利益又不受政治领导层面的重视，这些都为他们反对外国人，离开欧盟以及对布鲁塞尔的仇恨等提供了动力来源。正是这样没有保障的日常生活，为您刚才所提到的这种典型的英国式的“民族与文化固执性”奠定了坚强的柱石。

附2:http://invest.china.com.cn/html/2016/zhuantibaodao_0705/56885.html

                                              李宏图：英国脱欧，未必是坏事

                                                   发布时间： 2016-07-05

     脱欧派只比留欧派多了一百多万张票，而且在地区上看，是经济发达的英格兰赞成脱欧，而经济不发达的苏格兰地区赞成留欧，从这些因素来看，不能说多出的选票这些人就是民粹主义。

附3：http://ent.chinanews.com/gj/2016/07-03/7925660.shtml

                                         卡梅伦后悔公投 哀叹所有政治生命都以失败告终

                                                2016年07月03日 09:18　来源：中国日报网

   中国日报网7月2日电(信莲)英国公投决定退出欧盟，戴维•卡梅伦的首相生涯也随之断送。据英国《每日邮报》网站7月1日报道，知情人士透露，卡梅伦对于搬起石头砸了自己的脚感到分外懊悔。意识到“脱欧”派赢得公投后，这位英国史上最年轻的首相哀叹道“所有政治生命都以失败告终了”。

　　6月23日，英国举行全民公投以决定是否脱离欧盟。这场公投由首相卡梅伦发起，他原以为公投会以自己希望的方式结束，即英国继续留在欧盟。不料人算不如天算，虽然公投前几乎所有民调都显示“留欧”阵营的民众支持率更高，但现实却是“脱欧”派胜出了。次日，卡梅伦宣布辞职。

　　公投日当晚，卡梅伦的自传作者安东尼•塞尔登待在唐宁街10号的首相府，全程见证了卡梅伦的情绪从胜券在握的得意满满骤然跌至仕途受挫的伤心悲痛。 塞尔登称，当公投前的最后民调显示“留欧”阵营将会取胜时，唐宁街10号的氛围是轻松愉快的，卡梅伦的妻子萨曼莎、保守党联合主席安德鲁•西蒙•费尔德曼、幕僚长艾德•卢埃林和副幕僚长凯特•福尔等人都陪伴在卡梅伦的身边，收看电视上关于公投的报道。 纽卡斯尔市的公投数据出炉后，卡梅伦开始感觉到事情的发展方向似乎正在偏离自己的预期。

附4：http://news.hexun.com/2014-11-18/170516804.html

                                                        英国“疑欧”苏格兰“亲欧”

　　近期来看，英国政府的“疑欧”和“退欧”走向最有可能进一步触发苏格兰人的独立情绪。

　　当前，在苏格兰以外，英国社会“退欧”、“疑欧”声音渐长，选民右倾化日趋明显，促使英国部分政党对欧洲的态度日趋强硬。首相卡梅伦承诺，如果他所率领的保守党能够赢得2015年大选，将在2017年之前就英国是否退出欧盟举行一次全民公投。

　　但苏格兰人总体上倾向于进一步融入欧洲，不愿意看到苏格兰与欧洲的关系被越闹越僵的英欧关系所“绑架”。

　　斯特金表示，英国就是否退出欧盟举行公投，必须得到苏格兰、英格兰、威尔士和北爱尔兰四个地区的认可；只有每个地区都有多数选民支持退出欧盟的时候，公投结果才具备合法性。

　　她说:“在苏格兰公投期间，我们被告知，英国四个民族的地位是平等的，我们的呼声是算数的。如果真是这样，那么这种对就业、经济和国际地位有重大影响的决策，不应只获得英国范围内的赞同，也应取得每一个民族的同意。”

　　但卡梅伦已否认了在每个地区举行投票的可能性。他说，英国是一个联合王国，在是否退出欧盟问题上只会举行一次公投。

　　可以预见的是，如果英国政府未来在是否“退欧”的安排上违逆了苏格兰人的整体意志，苏格兰人必将予以还击，手段之一就是呼吁开展新一轮独立公投。

附5：http://www.pcpop.com/doc/2/2975/2975488.shtml

   网易财经6月25日讯 英国脱欧公投结果出来之后最震惊的应该是伦敦人， 在大伦敦地区有超过半数的投票者选择留欧，有些地区留欧支持率比例甚至接近80%。这其中自有他的原因，伦敦在大多数英国人看来已经不再是一个英国城市。

   2015年的数据显示伦敦总人口大概860万，外来移民，就是非英国出生的人口占据了三分之一，伦敦在英国这个非移民国家里，是一个彻头彻尾的移民城市，是一个另类，是一个大多数本土英国人尤其是年纪稍大的英国人不愿意去接近的地方，让英国人发怵的不仅仅是伦敦的交通，治安，更有新移民的文明程度。在某些地区整所学校里都见不到几个白人学生，一个班里可能有十几种不同的语言被同时使用。也正因为如此，伦敦也是一个年轻的城市，一个容易接受移民的城市，反正大家都是外来移民，没有彼此。04年之前伦敦大部分移民来自非洲大陆， 印度巴基斯坦，04年后随着欧洲东扩，东欧过来的移民在短短5年的时间里就成为了伦敦的主要移民国，根据14年独立日报发布的文章可以看出当时，在伦敦生活的东欧人就已经超过了50万，相当于一个谢菲尔德的总人口。 在这种背景之下伦敦留在欧盟的倾向是可以理解的。

附6：http://oicwx.com/detail/1040326

附7：http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-415-990776.html（黄安年的博客/2016年7月15日发布）

                                                   英国政府拒绝举行二次脱欧公投意味着什么？

       7月9日，英国政府正式拒绝了要求英国就是否脱离欧洲联盟举行第二次公投的请愿，这份请愿书曾获得了400多万人签名支持。英国政府的表态和英国新首相表示尽快启动脱欧谈判程序，说明英国的公投脱欧已经走上不归路，英国外交部代表政府说：“首相和政府都清楚表明，这是一个世代一次的投票，正如首相所说，我们必须尊重公投结果，我们现在必须为离开欧盟的过程做准备，政府将尽力确保在谈判中为英国人民争取到最好的结果。”至此，所谓二次公投的闹剧是划上句号的时候了。