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意大利新冠疫情趋势向好,但防控依然严峻
诸平
意大利新冠疫情统计结果(Last updated: 2020-04-29 13:55:04)
据2020年4月29日13点55分的更新结果(Last updated: 2020-04-29 13:55:04),全球新冠病毒感染者总数近314万例,死亡超过21.8万人。美国是报告感染人数最多的国家,目前已经超过103.5万例,死亡超过5.92万人。西班牙每日新增病例和死亡人数4月份以来一致处于波浪式下降,最近西班牙新增病例速率在2700人/日左右,每日死亡人数在300人左右。美国是报告感染人数最多的国家,目前有1035765例,死亡人数为59266人。在美国之后,报告病例最多的国家为:西班牙(超过23.21万例,死亡人数超过2.38万人)、意大利(超过20.15万例,死亡人数超过2.73万人)、法国(超过16.59万例,死亡人数超过2.36万人)、英国(超过16.11万例,死亡人数超过2.16万人)、德国(超过15.99万例,死亡人数超过0.63万人)和土耳其(超过11.46万例,死亡人数近3000人)。虽然意大利新冠肺炎确诊病例总数全球排名第三,仅次于美国和西班牙,西班牙的新冠疫情发展趋势,之前有所介绍(详见“西班牙新冠疫情虽有向好迹象,但仍需提防反弹”),今天再来谈谈意大利的新冠疫情发展趋势。由图1可以看出,尽管意大利单日新增确诊病例和单日死亡病例数一波三折,有张有落,但是,总趋势是每况愈下。
图1 4月1-28日新冠确诊病例和死亡病例数的变化
图2 4月1-28日新冠确诊病例数的变化
图2更加清晰地显示出意大利4月份以来新冠疫情的变化走势,虽然有起有落,但变化趋势犹如连阶瀑布,一段更比一段低。图3有与图2类似的变化趋势,但是图3没有图2那样的大起大落,落差明显小于图2.这些疫情向好迹象的出现,与意大利采取严厉的疫情防控措施(如在微信中看到的巡警在大街上抓人,强制老年人呆在家里,禁止在外游串!)有关。意大利新冠疫情总趋势积极向好,但是单日新增确诊病例仍然在2000例左右,单日死亡人数在300人左右,表明意大利疫情好转的拐点并尚未出现,由此可见,意大利的新冠疫情的防控严峻性依然十分艰巨,万万不可麻痹大意,放松警惕性,免得来自不易的防控效果前功尽弃。
图3 4月1-28日新冠确诊病例死亡人数的变化
Updates
1 new case in the State of Palestine [source]
19 new cases in Côte d'Ivoire [source]
25040 new cases and 2450 new deaths in the United States
14 new cases in French Guiana [source]
3 new cases in Burkina Faso [source]
15 new cases in San Marino [source]
8 new cases in Costa Rica [source] [source]
28 new cases in South Sudan [source]
57 new cases in Equatorial Guinea [source]
203 new cases and 3 new deaths in South Africa [source]
3996 new cases and 586 new deaths in the United Kingdom [source]
192 new cases in Kazakhstan [source] [source]
1 new case and 1 new death in Isle of Man [source]
1 new case in the Holy See [source] [source]
100 new cases and 34 new deaths in Switzerland [source]
12 new cases and 1 new death in Luxembourg [source]
123 new cases and 4 new deaths in the Dominican Republic [source]
3 new cases in Myanmar
1 new case in Sint Maarten [source]
5 new cases in Sierra Leone [source]
39 new cases in Azerbaijan [source]
22 new cases and 6 new deaths in the Republic of North Macedonia [source]
1266 new cases and 8 new deaths in Saudi Arabia [source]
5 new cases and 1 new death in Channel Islands [source]
171 new cases and 48 new deaths in the Netherlands [source]
5 new cases in Cabo Verde [source]
20 new cases and 3 new deaths in Bosnia and Herzegovina [source]
541 new cases and 7 new deaths in the United Arab Emirates [source]
3 new deaths in Lithuania Today the government modified the case figure substantially explaining that up until now the number of positive cases that was reported regarded positive laboratory test results rather than the number of infected people. [source]
35 new cases in Uzbekistan [source]
549 new cases and 3 new deaths in Bangladesh [source]
12 new cases and 2 new deaths in the DR Congo [source]
181 new cases and 19 new deaths in the Philippines [source]
125 new cases and 1 new death in Afghanistan [source]
22 new cases in El Salvador [source]
13 new cases in Kyrgyzstan [source]
4 new cases in Sao Tome and Principe [source]
14 new cases and 1 new death in South Korea [source]
3 new cases in New Zealand [source]
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