Didier Sornette and Guy Ouillon, Dragon-kings:mechanisms, statistical methods and empirical evidence, The European Physical  Journal Special Topics, 205,1-26, 2012.

According to this paradigm (指的是power law 统计，也特指Per Bak等人的SOC理论对power-law的阐释), small, large and extreme events belong to the same population, the same distribution, and reflect the same underlying mechanism(s).

Following that reasoning, a majority of the scientific community considers those events as unpredictable, in the sense that the final size of a future cannot be forecasted in advance （我们搞大气的大概不是scientific community 或者说不是 major scientific community. 我们天天花那多钱搞高影响天气气候的预报，在主流科学团体看来简直是浪费）.

This view is particularly pessimistic, and even alarming if true, as it casts a strong doubton possibilities of precise hazard prediction, with all the societal consequences. In our mind, it is even dangerous as it promotes an attitude of irresponsibility: in a world where catastrophes are pure surprises, no one can be responsible （对SOC的檄文，也算是帮我们搞大气的说了句话，看来大气加入major scientific community有门）.

In contrast,the concept of dragon-kings, if their occurrences can be diagnosed ex-ante,brings back responsibility and accountability（说了这么一堆，杀手锏登场亮相，that is DRAGON-KING）.

Didier Sornette, Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises, International Journal of Terraspace Sciences and Engineering, 2, 1-18, 2009.

There is a growing recognition that progress in most of these disciplines, …, will need such a systemic complex system and multidisciplinary approach. This view tends to replace the previous “analytical” approach, consisting of decomposing asystem in components, such that the detailed understanding of each component was believed to bring understanding in the functioning of the whole. （不忘时时刻刻给还原论泼泼冷水）