JiGe的个人博客分享 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/u/JiGe

博文

一种基于系统思维的新型事故因果理论及其适用于工作系统的系统化事故分析方法

已有 3675 次阅读 2021-12-28 22:03 |个人分类:学术交流|系统分类:论文交流

一种基于系统思维的新型事故因果理论及其适用于工作系统的系统化事故分析方法

摘要:重大事故,例如美国挑战者号航天飞机事故、印度博帕尔事故、日本福岛核事故、中国天津港火灾爆炸事故等,在世界各地都有发生。安全科学家一直试图了解这些事故发生的原因以及如何预防这些事故。事故致因模型和理论构成了许多安全研究领域和实践的基础。尽管已经存在许多事故致因模型,但是还没有一个广泛接受的事故致因模型。本文基于系统理论事故模型和过程(STAMP)和风险管理框架(RMF),提出了一种新的事故因果理论,即危险源-目标系统交互作用理论(简称为ITHTS)。这个理论将人、组织和技术因素统一在同一个同框架中,而且这个理论也将社会因素,如立法、监管和文化因素融入这个框架之中。另一方面,由于ITHTS不能直接应用于事故分析,本文提出了一种基于ITHTS和STAMP的新的工作系统系统事故分析方法(简称为SAAMWS)。以天津港火灾爆炸事故为例,论证了危险源-目标系统交互作用理论的解释力和新的事故分析方法的可行性。但是,在未来还需要做进一步的研究来评估这种新的系统化事故分析方法的可靠性和有效性。

关键词:事故致因模型;风险管理框架;STAMP;安全约束;ITHTS;系统化事故分析法

Title:

A new accident causation theory based on systems thinking and its systemic accident analysis method of work systems

Abstract

Major accidents such as the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster in the USA, the Bhopal Disaster in India, the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, and the Tianjin Port fire and explosion accident in China, have occurred all over the world. Safety scientists are always trying to understand why these accidents happened and how to prevent these accidents. Accident models and theories form the basis for many safety research fields and practices. However, there is no universally accepted model with useful elements relating to understanding accident causation, although many accident causation models exist. A new accident causation theory named the Interaction Theory of Hazard-Target System (ITHTS) is proposed based on Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) and Risk Management Framework (RMF), which not only incorporates human, organisational and technological characteristics in the same framework, but also considers the sociological factors such as legislative, regulatory, and cultural factors. On the other hand, a new systemic accident analysis method of work systems (SAAMWS) is proposed based on ITHTS and STAMP because ITHTS cannot be applied directly in accident analysis. We choose Tianjin Port fire and explosion accident as a case study to demonstrate the explanatory power of Interaction Theory of Hazard-target System and the feasibility of the new accident analysis method. Further research needs to be done to assess the reliability and validity of this new systemic accident analysis method.

Keywords:Accident causation model;Risk Management Framework;STAMP;Safety constraint;ITHTS

Systemic accident analysis method

引用格式:

Ge, J., Zhang, Y.Y., Xu, K.L., Li, J.S., Yao, X.W., Wu, C.Y., Li, S.Y., Yan, F., Zhang, J.J., Xu, Q.W. A new accident causation theory based on systems thinking and its systemic accident analysis method of work systems. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 2022, 158, 644-660. 

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psep.2021.12.036 

50天内免费下载地址:https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1eJke3PkfmD9R%7E 

备注:

    理论创新是一个漫长的过程。这篇文章从草稿到完成用了1年多时间,从投稿到录用经历了8个月,十易其稿。这篇文章提出了ITHTS理论,它是一个基于RMF和STAMP的新的事故致因理论,并在此基础上提出了一种适用于工作系统的新的系统化事故分析方法。



    https://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-1691308-1318568.html

    上一篇:企业安全管理之安全观——贵在细实与坚持
    下一篇:论德行与智慧
    收藏 IP: 124.235.59.*| 热度|

    2 谢钢 许培扬

    该博文允许注册用户评论 请点击登录 评论 (0 个评论)

    1/0 | 闂傚倸鍊搁崐鎼佸磹閹间礁纾归柟闂寸绾惧綊鏌熼梻瀵割槮缁炬儳缍婇弻鐔兼⒒鐎靛壊妲紒鐐劤濠€閬嶅焵椤掑倹鍤€閻庢凹鍙冨畷宕囧鐎c劋姹楅梺鍦劋閸ㄥ綊宕愰悙宸富闁靛牆妫楃粭鎺撱亜閿斿灝宓嗙€殿喗鐓¢、鏃堝醇閻斿弶瀚奸梻浣告啞缁诲倻鈧凹鍣i崺銏″緞閹邦厾鍘卞┑鈽嗗灠閻忔繃绂嶉崷顓犵<妞ゆ棁鍋愭晶锔锯偓瑙勬礀閵堟悂骞冮姀銏㈢煓闁割煈鍠曠槐鐔封攽閻樻剚鍟忛柛鐘愁殜閵嗗啴宕ㄩ鍥ㄧ☉铻栭柛娑卞幘椤︻噣姊洪幐搴㈢闁稿﹤缍婇幃锟犲Ψ閿斿墽鐦堥梻鍌氱墛缁嬫帡鏁嶅鍡曠箚闁圭粯甯楅幉鍝ョ磼鏉堛劌娴柟顔规櫊閹粌螣閻撳孩閿繝鐢靛剳缁茶棄煤閵堝鏅濇い蹇撴噸缁诲棝鏌涢锝嗙婵$偘绮欓弻娑㈠箛閵婏附鐝曢梺鍝勬閸楀啿顫忕紒妯诲闁告稑锕ラ崕鎾绘⒑瑜版帗鏁遍柛銊ユ贡濡叉劙鎮欑€涙ê顎撻梺鍛婃尭瀵墎绱炴惔銊︹拺闁诡垎鍛啈濡炪値鍋勯ˇ顖炴偩闁垮绶為柟閭﹀幘閸橆亝绻濋悽闈涗粶闁诲繑绻堝畷婵嗏堪閸喓鍘藉┑鐘绘涧鐎氼剟鎮橀崣澶嬪弿濠电姴鍟妵婵嬫煙椤旀儳鍘寸€殿喖鐖奸獮鎰償椤斿吋鏆忛梻鍌氬€烽懗鍫曞箠閹捐鍚归柡宥庡幖缁狀垶鏌ㄩ悤鍌涘:0 | 濠电姷鏁告慨鐑藉极閸涘﹥鍙忛柣鎴f閺嬩線鏌涘☉姗堟敾闁告瑥绻橀弻锝夊箣濠垫劖缍楅梺閫炲苯澧柛濠傛健楠炴劖绻濋崘顏嗗骄闂佸啿鎼鍥╃矓椤旈敮鍋撶憴鍕8闁告梹鍨甸锝夊醇閺囩偟顓洪梺缁樼懃閹虫劙鐛姀銈嗏拻闁稿本鐟︾粊鐗堛亜椤愩埄妲搁柣锝呭槻铻i悶娑掑墲閻忓啫鈹戦悙鏉戠仸缁炬澘绉归、鏇熺鐎n偆鍘梺鍓插亝缁诲啴宕幒妤佺厸闁告劑鍔庢晶娑㈡煛閸涱喚鍙€闁哄本绋戦埥澶愬础閻愯尙顔戞繝鐢靛仜閻楀﹪鎮¢垾鎰佹綎闁惧繐婀遍惌娆愮箾閸℃ê鍔ら柛鎾存緲椤啴濡堕崱妤冧淮濡炪倧绠撳ḿ褔顢氶敐鍡欑瘈婵﹩鍘藉▍婊堟⒑閸涘﹦鈽夐柛濠傤煼瀹曠増鎯旈妸銉у幒闁瑰吋鐣崝宀€绮诲杈ㄥ枑閹兼惌鐓堥弫濠囨煕閺囥劌鐏¢柣鎾寸☉椤法鎹勯悜姗嗘!濠电偛鎳庡Λ娑氭閹烘梹瀚氶柤纰卞墮椤e搫顪冮妶搴′簻缂佺粯锕㈤獮鏍捶椤撶喎鏋傞梺鍛婃处閸嬪棝鏁嶈箛娑欌拻濞撴埃鍋撴繛浣冲嫮浠氶梻浣呵圭€涒晠鎮¢敓鐘茬畺闁汇垻枪椤懘鏌曢崼婵囶棏闁归攱妞藉娲嚒閵堝懏鐎惧┑鐘灪閿氶柍缁樻崌閸╋繝宕ㄩ鎯у箥闂備礁鎲¢崹顖炲磹閺嶎偀鍋撳鐐 | 濠电姷鏁告慨鐑藉极閸涘﹥鍙忛柣鎴f閺嬩線鏌涘☉姗堟敾闁告瑥绻橀弻锝夊箣閿濆棭妫勯梺鍝勵儎缁舵岸寮婚悢鍏尖拻閻庨潧澹婂Σ顔剧磼閻愵剙鍔ゆい顓犲厴瀵鏁愭径濠勭杸濡炪倖甯婇悞锕傚磿閹剧粯鈷戦柟鑲╁仜婵″ジ鏌涙繝鍌涘仴鐎殿喛顕ч埥澶愬閳哄倹娅囬梻浣瑰缁诲倸螞濞戔懞鍥Ψ瑜忕壕钘壝归敐鍛儓鐏忓繘姊洪崨濠庢畷濠电偛锕ら锝嗙節濮橆厼浜滈梺绋跨箰閻ㄧ兘骞忔繝姘厽閹艰揪绲鹃弳鈺呭几椤忓嫧鏀介柍銉ㄥ皺閻瑦鎱ㄦ繝鍐┿仢鐎规洦鍋婂畷鐔碱敆閳ь剙鈻嶉妶鍥╃=濞达絿鐡旈崵娆撴煟濡や焦灏い鏇稻缁绘繂顫濋鈹炬櫊閺屾洘寰勯崼婵堜痪闂佸搫鍊甸崑鎾绘⒒閸屾瑨鍏岀痪顓炵埣瀹曟粌鈹戠€n偅娅旂紓鍌氬€烽悞锕傚礉閺嶎厽鍎庢い鏍ㄥ嚬濞兼牗绻涘顔荤盎鐎瑰憡绻傞埞鎴︽偐閹绘帩鍔夐梺浼欑悼閸忔﹢骞冨Δ鍛濠㈣泛锕f竟鏇㈡⒒娴e摜绉烘俊顐ユ硶缁牊鎷呴搹閫涚瑝闂佸搫绉查崝瀣崲閸℃稒鐓忛柛顐g箓閳ь剙鎲$粋宥嗐偅閸愨斁鎷洪柣搴℃贡婵敻藟婢跺浜滈柨鏃囶嚙閻忥箓鏌涢埞鍨仼妞ゆ挸銈稿畷鍗炍熼懖鈹倝姊绘笟鈧ḿ褑鍣归梺鍛婁緱閸ㄦ壆鏁幒鏃傜=闁稿本鑹鹃埀顒勵棑缁牊绗熼埀顒€鐣烽幇鏉夸紶闁靛/鍛帬闂備礁婀遍搹搴ㄥ窗閹捐纾婚柟瀛樼贩瑜版帒绀傞柛蹇氬亹缁嬪洭姊绘担绋胯埞婵炲樊鍙冨濠氭晲婢跺﹥顥濋梺鍦圭€涒晠宕曢幘缁樺€垫繛鍫濈仢閺嬬喎鈹戦悙璇у伐妞ゎ偄绻掔槐鎺懳熺拠宸偓鎾绘⒑閹呯闁硅櫕鎸剧划顓㈠灳閺傘儲鏂€闂佺粯鍔栬ぐ鍐棯瑜旈弻锝呂旈崘銊愩垽鏌i敐鍥у幋妤犵偛娲鍫曞箰鎼达紕銈跺┑锛勫亼閸婃牠骞愰懡銈囩煓闁瑰鍋熼々鏌ユ煟閹伴潧澧柛娆忕箲娣囧﹪顢涘⿰鍐ㄤ粯婵炲瓨绮撶粻鏍箖濡も偓椤繈鎮欓鈧锟� | 闂傚倸鍊搁崐鎼佸磹閹间礁纾归柟闂寸绾惧綊鏌熼梻瀵割槮缁炬儳婀遍埀顒傛嚀鐎氼參宕崇壕瀣ㄤ汗闁圭儤鍨归崐鐐烘偡濠婂啰绠荤€殿喗濞婇弫鍐磼濞戞艾骞堟俊鐐€ら崢浠嬪垂閸偆顩叉繝闈涱儐閻撴洘绻涢崱妤冪缂佺姴顭烽弻鈥崇暆閳ь剟宕伴幘鑸殿潟闁圭儤顨呴~鍛存煟濡櫣锛嶅ù婊庝簽缁辨捇宕掑▎鎺戝帯婵犳鍣g粻鏍晲閻愭潙绶為柟閭﹀劦閿曞倹鐓曢柡鍥ュ妼閻忕姷绱掗悩宕囨创闁哄本鐩、鏇㈡晲閸℃瑯妲版俊鐐€曟鍝ョ矓閻熼偊娼栭柧蹇撴贡閻瑦绻涢崱妯哄姢闁告挾鍋撶换娑氣偓娑欋缚閻倕霉濠婂簼绨绘い鏇悼閹风姴霉鐎n偒娼旈梻渚€娼х换鎺撴叏閸儱惟闁挎棁妗ㄧ花濠氭⒑閸濆嫬鈧悂鎮樺┑鍫㈢闁哄秲鍔嶉崣蹇涙偡濞嗗繐顏存繛鍫熺矒閺岀喖顢欓悡搴⑿╁Δ妤婁簷閸楀啿鐣烽妸鈺婃晣鐟滃骸袙婢舵劖鈷戞慨鐟版搐閻掓椽鏌涢妸鈺€鎲鹃柕鍡楀暞缁绘繈宕掗妶鍛吙闂備礁鎼悮顐﹀磿鏉堚晝涓嶉柣鐔稿櫞瑜版帗鏅查柛娑卞枦绾偓闂備礁鎲¢悷銉ノ涘┑鍡╂綎闁惧繐婀辩壕鍏间繆椤栨繂鍚规い锔哄劦濮婅櫣绮欓崠鈥充紣濠电姭鍋撻梺顒€绉撮悞鍨亜閹哄秷鍏岄柛鐔哥叀閺岀喖宕欓妶鍡楊伓

    Archiver|手机版|科学网 ( 京ICP备07017567号-12 )

    GMT+8, 2025-1-24 10:32

    Powered by ScienceNet.cn

    Copyright © 2007-2025 中国科学报社

    返回顶部